The Iran–Israel conflict that erupted on June 13, 2025, following Israel’s launch of "Operation Rising Lion", has caused serious upheaval for the global logistics sector. Currently, maritime transport is facing a “double crisis” as both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz—two of the world’s most critical trade routes—are affected.

Since late 2023, over 190 Houthi-led attacks had already escalated transportation and insurance costs, forcing vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 3,500 nautical miles and up to 14 extra days of transit.

Source:US Deploys Aircraft Carrier USS Nimitz Over Iran-Israel Conflict - Newsweek

In terms of key indicators, ocean freight rates on impacted routes remain significantly higher than pre-crisis levels, even though there hasn't been a sudden escalation akin to full-scale war. At the same time, crude oil prices and fuel costs for air and sea transport remain elevated, and risk insurance surcharges continue to apply in high-risk zones.

An Exceptionally “Fearless” Emirates Boeing 777 Over Iranian Airspace — Flight UAE129 from Dubai to Moscow on June 17

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Assessment:

The aviation sector is being hit just as hard, as the airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Jordan has plunged into chaos following Israel’s missile strikes on Iran. Air India has canceled more than a dozen flights, including routes from New York, London, Vancouver, and Washington. A Delta flight from JFK to Tel Aviv flew for 8 hours only to return to New York.

From a global macroeconomic perspective, the conflict has crossed a psychological threshold, with at least 224 deaths in Iran and 24 in Israel. The resulting instability is driving inflationary pressure worldwide, particularly through rising energy and logistics costs.

The EU, Middle East, and Central Asia have already seen a 5.3% drop in trade activity. This sustained disruption could cause logistics costs to rise by 15–25% in the long term, ultimately placing the burden on global consumers.